Week 7 - Top DFS Picks and DraftKings Lineups
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco vs. NO ($5,400)
Flacco is coming off of his two worst games this year, but that doesn't concern me, it was his toughest matchup on the road, etc. I talked about it more in my WW video - but now he's at home against the Saints. Last week, his 37 attempts, which are normally a high number for Joey historically, were the lowest total since Week 1 and the first time he's been under 40 pass attempts since that first game.
Now, the Saints defense is pretty ironic, if you want to put it that way. Last year, they were great against the pass, and shitty against the run. This year, however, they rank 1st in the NFL in FO's run defense DVOA, and 30th in pass defense DVOA. They're allowing the 2nd highest YPA in the NFL, an 11:2 TD:INT ratio on the year and have allowed the 5th most pass completions of 40+ yards. I think that's what we see Flacco take advantage of against Ken Crawley and P.J. Williams. Look for Flacco and John Brown to have big games on Sunday at home, in a 49.5 point game total.
C.J. Beathard vs. LAR ($4,800)
After seeing what we did on MNF, Beathard has now strung together three games in a row where you sit back and say to yourself, hmmm, was Jimmy G really worth $100 billion? Well, the Rams secondary has been really bad recently. Over their last four games, they've allowed an average of 300 yards to opposing QB with a 10:1 TD:INT ratio.
Shanahan is so good at scheming up ways to get his playmakers open and we saw it on display on Monday night. In a game with a 53 point over/under, the 49ers are somehow just 1-point dogs (trap game, home favorites), Vegas expects a shootout from both sides. For $4,800, he's the perfect QB to have if you're putting a guy like Gurley in your lineup.
Running Backs
~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~
Todd Gurley @ SF ($9,800)
He's just 1-of-4 guys in the main slate that qualify here, and if you're paying for him, you're probably not paying for another top tier guy. I just don't see how you can fade Gurley at this point.
~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~
($6,600)
Tough to pick one here, let's go through the list and give a breakdown.
Tarik Cohen vs. NE ($5,100)
After back-to-back monster games from Tarik Cohen, it's clear that this offense runs much more efficiently with Cohen on the field than Howard. Having Howard in this offense is like trying fit the square peg in the circular hole. Cohen has caught 7 passes in each of the last two games, totaling 294 yards from scrimmage and two scores. That's absurd.
They will get a New England team that's mediocre at defending against RBs. They let up 5-105-1 to Kareem Hunt last week and 7 catches to Nyheim Hines the week before. And you go back to last season, when Matt Nagy was the OC for KC and Hunt also wen 5-98-2 through the air. He likes to attack them that way. Look for Cohen to continue the hot streak in this 50 point over-under game.
~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~
Corey Clement vs. CAR ($4,700_
Talked about Clement for a while in my video on Thursday ---
Kerryon Johnson @MIA ($4,500)
KJ obviously becomes the chalk play with Theo Riddick likely to miss Sunday's game, which is surprising considering that the Lions are coming off of their bye week. Blount will still have a role, unfortunately, but those 1st down and short-yard carries are meaningless in fantasy. Riddick's passing game usage opens up Johnson to have a monster day in Miami. Miami is allowing the 6th most FPs to RBs on the year, the 5th most rushes of 20+ yards, meanwhile KJ ranks 8th in the NFL in breakaway run rate per PlayerProfiler (% of runs 15+ yards). DET also allows the third most receptions, receiving yards and 2nd most rec. touchdowns to opposing RBs, which is huge since KJ will get almost all of that work.
Wide Receivers
~~ The Gabagool ($7,000-$9,000) ~~
Adam Thielen @ NYJ ($8,900)
Is Adam Thielen the Gurley of WRs? I guess so. With their starting slot CB Skrine on the I.R., opposing teams have zominated the slot. Even before Skrine went night-night. There hasn't been an opposing slot WR that has gone under 13.5 PPR fantasy points vs. gang green. That would be a bad day for Thielen, as he's now gone for over 100 yards in all six games this year, averaging a ridiculous 25.5 PPR FPPG, currently on pace for 216 targets, 155 receptions, 1,899 yards and 10.6 TDs. He's unsittable.
Brandin Cooks @ SF ($7,100)/Robert Woods ($7,000)
He's a must start this week. Here's why. Just like we saw on MNF, Rodgers routinely looked away from Richard Sherman, and for good reason, the rest of their d-backs are trash. Sherman covers the left side of the field strictly. Davanta Adams runs 70% of his routes from the left, so he didn't see much of Sherman. Anytime Adams was on the right, he typically went elsewhere.
I expect the same thing to happen with the Cooks/Woods combo on Sunday. Cooks has run just 15% of his routes on the right, compared to 52% by Woods. It should be a field day for the Goff-Cooks combo. And it doesn't hurt that Kupp will be out.
~~ Extra Medium ($5,000-$6,999) ~~
John Brown vs. NO ($5,700)
I also talked a lot about Brown in my video on Thursday - his matchup is fantastic.
Devin Funchess @ PHI ($5,300)
If there's a part of the Philly defense to attack, it's the boundary d-backs. While he'll see the majority of his routes against Ronald Darby who's been decent this year, he'll also see Jalen Mills. Like almost all of the CBs in the league, Funchess has the big height advantage on the Eagles outside guys. This is a group that's allowed the 8th most FPs to the WRs on the year. Funchess has at least 7 targets in every game outside of Week 1, and even with Greg Olsen back I like Funchess.
~~ The Profit Clurb (Under $5,000) ~~
Jermaine Kearse vs. MIN ($4,100)
Love me some Jermaine Kearse this week. Coming off a 10 target, 9-catch, 94-yard game in Week 6, Kearse has fully taken over as the slot WR in NY, which we saw was super valuable in the beginning of the season with Enunwa. Now, Enunwa is hurt and will miss multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain, and Terrelle Pryor is doubtful. This would leave Kearse and Robby Anderson to handle the majority of work for the Jets receiving group. PFF charts out Xavier Rhodes shadowing Robby Anderson. We know that the Vikes lost their first-round CB Mike Hughes to the I.R., which leaves Kearse with a plus matchup against Mackensie Alexander. W.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz vs. CAR ($7,100)
Ertz has been the absolute truth this year. While I'd rather have Kelce in szn-long, he's not on the main slate, only Gronk is but he's got a tough matchup @ CHI.
Carolina is the opposite. The fifth friendliest defense to fantasy TEs. They rank 25th against the TE in FO's DVOA and have allowed a TD to the TE in 3-of-5 games on the season. The only two they didn't give up a TD to were the Cowboys in Week 1 who were basically playing without one at that point and the Evan Engram-less Giants.
This is a beautiful matchup for Ertz to capatilize on. He's been unbelievably consistent and this is a game where he should be able to showcase not only that, but his upside as well.
David Njoku @ TB ($4,200)
The run for this Browns offense starts now, in Tampa Bay. Baker's about to go awf. Njoku has become more and more involved in each game since Baker has taken over as the starter. His stat lines, starting in Week 4: 7-5-52-0, 11-6-69-0, 12-7-55-1. Both of his targets inside-the-10 have come from Baker and this TB defense is god awful.
They're allowing the single most FPs to the TE position. Apart from Week 1, where Ben Watson went 4-44. Listen to these games: Week 2 - Eagles TEs = 15 receptions, 151 yards. Week 3 - Vance McD: 4-112-1. Week 4 - Burton: 82 yards, 1 TD. Last week - Austin Hooper: 9-71-1.
You can't ask for a better matchup. 50.5 over/under. It's time for Njoku to eat.