Five weeks in, we are about as good as it gets. My superlocks are hitting, I have yet to dip below .500 on a week, and my confidence is at an all time low, which is great for these picks. We’ve got two more superlocks this week that are more likely than not to win, so buy a house, take a mortgage out on it, then take out another and put both mortgages on these locks. You won’t be disappointed (but if they don’t I know a guy that’ll give you a brand new life and move you into a cabin in the middle of New Hampshire. If you want testimonials there’s a man [formerly] named Walter you can ask).
Last Week: 8-7-0
Current Record: 45-33-0
Superlock Record: 4-3
New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-16.5)
Pick: Patriots (-16.5)
The Giants are heading into this more banged up than Asa Akira after calling for a plumber, and although I usually go against my gut on Thursdays, I just can’t here. The Patriots are steamrolling anybody in their way, even after looking pedestrian against the Redskins early this past Sunday, and that will not change with the Giants. Daniel Jones isn’t ready for primetime, not even meaning this Thursday night, like I think Deion Sanders would put him in a spin cycle at the crisp age of 52, so he most certainly won’t be able to go toe to hoof with the GOAT. The Patriots may win by 100, but I’m not making this my lock of the week because I’m a fraud and Thursdays give me the willies.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
Pick: Panthers (-1.5)
I’m making this pick solely because the Bucs beat that Panther ass the last time they faced off. Probably not smart, but like I’ve said a million times over, I didn’t get this gig by way of my intelligence. The Panthers were still rolling out fig Newton in week two, and now, with Allen looking for revenge (on behalf of his mentor) like Drake from the months of June to August in 2016, Carolina is ready to grab a dub. This game is being played in London, so there isn’t any real home field advantage, but I’d bet the Londonites feel pretty blue having to watch Derek Carr and Chase Daniels face off, so they may be backing the cats. The sneaky play here is the under, as both defenses have been awesome up to this point and Jameis is going to give Carolina all the chances possible to show why they’re among the league’s best.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Pick: Seahawks (-1.5)
This is a trap game, 100%. The Browns look like the Browns of old (and new, to be fair) and Russell Wilson looks, well, like Russell Wilson. These first two sentences have told you nothing about this game, and that’s because this line makes no sense to me. The Browns have no homefield advantage that I can think of other than the heat emanating from the stands as fans burn jerseys bearing the number 13, but even if they did, Seattle should have no issue winning this by two or more. Now, I am lacking confidence with this pick because as I said earlier, this line is way too small of a number for a team that has looked this garbage, but I’m not going to out-think the obvious here. Seattle by a million, but maybe Cleveland by a million, I don’t know.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Pick: Chiefs (-4.5)
I love this game. LOVE IT. The Texans demolished a pseudo-NFL team named to Falcons last week while the Chiefs lost to the Colts, and because of this, are only 4.5 point favorites playing at Arrowhead. You’re telling me that on a neutral field, KC is favored by just 1.5? Come on now. I get that Mahomes’ ankle is fucked, but Deshaun has as good a chance as any to break a collarbone or two on any given hit, and with their line, is more likely than not. Coming off a loss, paired with facing an inconsistent team off a massive win, it’s nearly impossible for me to see the Chiefs failing to cover this number, which is why they’re my superlock this week.
Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)
This game will either end 3-0 or 37-33, no in between. Neither team really wants to play football in 2019, and I’d imagine the Dolphins want to win even less than the Skins do, which is why I’m rolling with them. You’d think that after firing their coach and getting their hearts ripped out against the Pats they’d be in a huge bounceback spot, but I’m more convinced that they’re dead than motivated. Coming off a bye, Brian Flores probably let the team know that he needs to win in this spot to keep his job, which may be enough motivation to edge out the Redskins. I honestly feel bad for both of these teams and I GUARANTEE I won’t watch this game.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Pick: Eagles (+2.5)
The Vikings took care of business last week against the Giants, but that was to be expected facing a rookie QB and a depleted weapons group. Now, they go up against an Eagle’s team that is built perfectly to counter Minnesota’s strengths. We all know, especially Adam Thielen, that the Vikings want to run the ball as much as possible. Well, that will be easier said than done in this spot, matching up against one of the league’s best run stuffing units. Yes, their secondary plays like their checks aren’t clearing, but do we really trust cousin Kirk to put up two good games in a row? I know I don’t. As for Wentz, he’s basically coming off a bye week so he should be ready to blow up against a defense that hasn’t faced a competent QB since week two.
New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
Pick: Saints (+1.5)
This makes no sense. The Jags are cool and all, but how are they favored over the Saints? Yeah, they’re at home, but they just got manhandled by a team built very similarly to New Orleans in the Carolina Panthers. It was the first time they faced a real offense since week one, where the Chiefs handled business on the road, and now going up against a hot Teddy two gloves, it could get ugly. My only concern, as I’ve said before, is this line makes no sense, which means somebody knows something I don’t, but that’s more of an indictment on my intelligence, or lack thereof, so I’m not going to try to outsmart myself. This is my exclusive (yeah, no big deal) second superlock of the week. Put your kid’s college fund, your mortgage, 401k, or anything of economic value on this game, unless the Saints lose, then that wouldn’t be a good look.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
Pick: Bengals (+11.5)
Every week the Ravens look worse, as Lamar Jackson expended all of his energy against the two worst defenses in the league to open the year. Their defense has been incredibly mediocre as well, and that’s me being generous. Sure, they’re going up against a Bengals team that couldn’t keep up with the Cardinals for three quarters, but I don’t care. Andy Dalton lives for garbage time, and this whole organization is a dumpster fire so he’s in his element. They’re on the road, sure, but I don’t know if the Ravens are beating any team by 12+ at this point. It should be a low scoring game where Baltimore leans on the run to kill clock, so I’ll rock with the cats in this spot.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Pick: Rams (-3.5)
This is my recency bias pick of the week. I mean, the 49ers are a very good team, but they aren’t as good as the Browns made them look, and the Rams are also solid, but aren’t as bad as the Seahawks made them look. The Rams are at home, coming off a long week, and the 49ers are on the road coming off a short week. This isn’t rocket science people. In a divisional game in their house, the Rams should do more than just edge this one out and take over the lead in the NFC West.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)
I’m just going to pick the Cardinals until I’m sick of them. They can’t score in the redzone to save their lives, but neither can the Falcons. Atlanta just got their doors blown off by Deshaun Watson, a similarly dynamic QB playing behind an equally poor offensive line, so at home, Kyler may finally blow up like RiFF RAFF. The Cards are a bit more of an unknown than the Falcons, but we know Atlanta stinks, and I’m still convincing myself Arizona is good, so give me the home dogs.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Pick: Titans (+2.5)
If the Broncos hadn’t won this past week, and if the Titans had kept it closer than a seven point loss to the Bills, the Titans would be favored by at least a field goal. The thing is, this hypothetical didn’t play out, and we live in reality around here. Despite this, the Titans are an objectively better football team in every facet of the game, and with an actual kicker (fingers crossed Cody!), they should be able to make at least 25% of their kicks. 2.5 is too big of a number for a team that is dead on the inside, even if they’re in mile high.
Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Cowboys (-8.5)
Sam Darnold is back, which means next to nothing when the Jets’ o-line is going to get him killed three snaps in. It’ll take more than one week for the offense to regain their footing, and the Cowboys aren’t quite the team you’re looking to target to bounce back against. Dak should tear up the sorry excuse of a secondary the Jets (don’t) have, and Zeke should run rampant on them as well. I don’t see how the Jets keep this with double digits, so 8.5 is an easy number to cover in my extremely humble opinion.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Pick: Chargers (-6.5)
I hate this pick. The Chargers are legit bad and have about three players left on defense that I can name. I don’t care that the Steeler are down to their 3rd QB (I think his name is Develin Hodges; I’m not even going to look I up to confirm because I care so little about the Steelers) because LA is down to their practice squad, so it’s a level playing field. On top of this, Pouncey is done for the year, so the Steelers’ d-line will be all over him. This isn’t the week for Melvin Gordon to break out, and if Pitt decides to put a corner on Keenan rather than a linebacker, Phil may struggle. Now, I did pick the Chargers because I’m stubborn, so take this pick with a grain of salt.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Pick: Lions (+4.5)
We saw the 49ers come off a bye into a Monday night and absolutely dominate, and the situation is identical here. Sure, they aren’t playing the Browns, but I think they can make GB sweat with their new and improved defense and Stafford looking like Matt of old. Both coaches suck, so neither side has an edge there, and even though they’re at Lambeau, I’d hope the Lions can keep a divisional game close. I’m not overly confident in this pick, which is why I love it. The streak shall continue.