Week 4 Waiver Wire Notes

This is.... oh boy,

So many moving parts here.

 

injuries

Chris Carson

Minor knee sprain. Sucks bc they play the Dolphins in Week 4. They're optimistic that it's an insignificant injury, how early he'll play tough to tell. They play MIA then MIN, then get a bye. They might hold him out through the bye? 

We'll probably have a combo of Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer in the backfield. So, while you want to own pieces of the team, neither are great starts. Hyde would be a flex play given GL opps, even tho they're never inside the 5 cause Rus just throws absolute daggers from 40 yards out - like it might be hyperbole but also like might not be. They've been so good through the air, that's its zapped fantasy value from the ground game. Hyde could get 12 touches + a GL carry or two, so I'm not spending much on either, but I prefer Hyde.

Seahawks halftime HB snap count

• Chris Carson 21
• Carlos Hyde 9
• Travis Homer 6

End of Game: Hyde/Homer both with 16

Routes run:

Homer - 11 / Hyde 8

 

Jeff Wilson - San Francisco

- Well you have Raheem Mostert with the MCL sprain already, and now you have McKinnon with a rib injury, though it's not expected to be serious really at all - 50/50, maybe better odds of him playing Week 4.

Twitter, as usual, said it best:

 

Regardless, this offense wants to run itself through its RBs, though Mullens was more than competent.

Keep a close eye on injury reports, but Wilson is definitely a guy you're going to want to spend some FAAB on if you're hurting at RB.

And on that offense, George Kittle will likely be byke soon, Deebo will be coming off the I.R. this week, but it's probably less likely he plays in Week 4 and Week 5 is realistic return timetable - keep him on your roster. Which leads us to an interesting pickup in Brandon Aiyuk. Basically did last game exactly what we would have expected Deebo to be this year, and it's because Shanahan has a type man.

Aiyuk easily leads the team in targets with 8, turns it into 5-70, but more importantly 3-31-1 on the ground so a very big fantasy game. 

So, with Aiyuk, it's tough to have long term confidence in him with Kittle and Deebo coming byke real soon. Again, I think Deebo is a week 5 return, so Aiyuk is a pretty strong flex play at home against Philly traveling cross country after a soul-suckign tie in week 3. So, while I like Aiyuk as a pickup, he's my #2 rookie WR waiver pickup of the week

and that spot goes to Justin Jefferson. Depending on how your team is built right now, like if you don't desperately need a fill-in at RB, like Hyde, Jefferson is pretty clearly my #1 pickup this week

Man did this kid ball out. And I'm getting big time Terry McLaurin vibes from this performance/breakout on Sunday - just add in elite college production and 1st round draft capital. They finally let him stay on the field. In Week 1 and 2, he played behind Olabisi Johnson in snaps, by a hefty amount, Week 3, Jefferson played on 78% of the snaps and ran a route on 90% of Cousins' dropbacks. He's in as the WR2, it took 3 weeks:

And you shouldn't be surprised, he was on the IR/Covid list in camp for a bit, struggled and now he's in it.

Jefferson finished the game with 7-175-1 on 9 targets. Cousins was literally staring at Jefferson as his first read on most dropbacks.

Man, should've just listened to Brett Kollman, I'm sure a lot of you subscribe to him on YouTube as well:

Should've listened. 

Now you're not gonna feel good about throwing a rookie WR right into your lineup, but he needs to be picked up asap. The Vikings schedule for pass defenses over the next 10 or so weeks is gorgeous.

They desperately needed someone outside of Thielen to funnel target to, and they found it in their rookie 1st round pick. 

 

Dallas Goedert

Fractured ankle. "He's going to miss some time". Same shit different year for the Eagles. Remember the 2H of 2019 -- no Reagor, no Djax, no alshon, now now Goedert. Ertz and Sanders about to see 10 targets/game. Greg Ward saw a lofty 11 targs on Sunday. When Ward was promoted last year, Weeks 12-17, he had games of 7 targets, 7 target, 9 targets and 9 targets - they're extremely low aDOT inefficient targets, but volume is king I guess right...

 

Listen these other WRs, like WR3s that u might use for a flex spot, you can get that info anywhere, and they don't move the needle. There's Chase Claypool IF Diontae Johnson misses more time.

The problem is, like you can say how are you excited about this young rookie Jefferson doing this but not the Claypools and Tee Higgins'. Because, imo, neither have the actual upside of being the WR2 in their offense this year. If Diontae's on the field, Claypool is the 3, easily. Boyd and Green still above Higgins, despite the 2 TDs I promise.

Nice little hack for start/sit is PlayerProfiler's player pages show the cornerback match-up, and whenever you have a true No. 1 WR matched up with an alpha corner, passes often get funneled to the No. 2 in that passing game.

You saw this most clearly in the Cincinnati-Philadelphia game where Darius Slay is No. 4 on PlayerProfiler's Cornerback Rankings and shadowed A.J. Green. Yeah, PlayerProfiler.com actually has cornerback rankings based on advanced metrics -- pretty cool. Anyway, Slay had multiple sick pass break-ups and smothered A.J. Green all game. Meanwhile, Tyler Boyd goes HAM against Nichel Robey-Coleman, who you guessed it, was ranked No. 110. Love it when a plan comes together.

 

I don't hate Andy Isabella but man, they will just not get this man on the field more. All he does is make plays.

  

 

Some notes on defenses: 

The Rams are almost the only defense that is set up to kill in Week 4 that are owned in less than 60% of league

They're at home, against the Giants where Daniel Jones has more turnover than an entry level business - 12 point favorites, Giants are beat tf up, have to travel cross country. 

The other team is the Packers. Going against the pathetic Falcons. 7.5 point favorites, at home. Say no more tbh. Do they have Julio, do they have Gage, question marks at best. They're my under-the-radar stream for Week 4 that will be way more widely available.

Listen, I know how bad the Jets are. But like Denver might be as equally in shambles. They are so banged up. Lost another offensive line man this week. They're on the road, they're probably starting a 3rd string QB, they're barely favorited in this game. I'm not gonna fault you for starting them, but I'm not actively pursuing them. I actually might prefer the Jets defense tbh.