- Rojo on the COVID list plus dealing with the finger surgery, i think there's like no chance he plays. Not very encouraging from me "I tHinK thEre'S liKe No ChAnCe"
- Fournette would take that role.
- Since AB joined the team, from Weeks 9-14, TB's target rate to RBs has gone from 25% down to 15%
- Atlanta's been very good against RBs on the year of course, Ekeler torched them the air last week, but Fournette isn't Ekeler obviously and TBs line is not blocking for their RBs. Dead last in yards before contact, 1.9 - which is a testament to Ronald Jones' success.
- I think McCoy would play some of the passing down role, but I think Fournette is a decent flex play. He always has the chance of just taking over the backfield for 20 touches, or breaking away a very long run. But he might not and average 2.3 ypc on 12 carries. Assuming Ronald Jones is out, I'll have Fournette around RB30.
- Mostert, ankle?
- Jeff Wilson up at RB18 - ECR RB22
- Following their Week 11 bye - 96-92 snaps (Mostert-Wilson)
- All other SF RBs = 26
- Mostert: 39 carries (2 GL), 5 targets, 5 receptions
- Wilson: 30 carries (4GL), 6 targets, 3 receptions
- McKinnon + Coleman = 5 carries, 3 targets combined
- Wilson will be pretty highly ranked if
- Mostert is ruled out, RB15-18 range. There's no way I'm starting another SF RB.
- I have up at RB25.
- Ingram didn't get a single touch against the Browns in a game where Baltimore scored 47 fucking points. It's clearly a 2-man show now. Since he returned in Week 10, Ingram is averaging 4 touches/game.
- Gus actually isn't getting a ton of work only like 7-8 touches/game, but he's scored 6 touchdowns in his last 8 games.
- They're down both Hollywood and Miles Boykin
- And now they're at home, as nearly 2 touchdowns favorites against a miserable Jags run defense who have allowed the single most FPs to RBs over the last 3 weeks, 561 rushing yards to RBs over their last 3 games.
- There should be GL opportunities to be had here. I think he's in that David Johnson, Todd Gurley mold, not a great ceiling, but probably going to see 10-12 touches in a better offense with a better chance to score then those guys.
- I have him all the way down at RB28.
- he's been awful, averaging just 3.5 ypt, not even ypc, per touch. with teams like DAL, CIN, JAX, BUF on the schedule all really bad run defenses.
- much of that might have to do with his bruised thigh, which is still clearly a thing, but also:
- PIT = oline 1.9 YBC (30th)
- if you need to sit connor, do it.
- YBC/attempt is tied for dead last (1.9)
- Targeted RBs on 15% of throws, NFL average is 19%
- Devin Singletary has one touchdown over his last 256 touchdowns dating back to last year
- Zack Moss has't scored since week 9.
- Their touch splits have gone in favor of Singletary following their Week 11 bye:
- DS: 43
- Moss: 28
- But I don't feel good about starting either of these guys, at all. They're both just outside my top 35.
Claypool has been shadowed twice, diontae 0 times.
I don't hate Keke this week. He scored the TD last week which made him like semi not suicidal for owners, but the volume obviously wasn't there. With Cooks out, his snap rate from the slot dropped from 75% down to 59%. Cooks is expected back so Coutee should be byke in the slot. Indy is not typically an easy matchup, but go byke like 3 weeks, Coutee had his coming out part against them 8-141.