What's up big homies & homettes. Here with them big facts only by way of my fingers. Here are my top DFS & Draftkings plays for Week 13, position-by-position.
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I'll start out by saying I'm fading Patrick Mahomes all day and tomorrow at $7,600. The price is way too high and realistically, Oakland has not been that bad against the pass recently. They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Philip Rivers did it in Week 5 (339), and he's actually the ONLY QB to top 300 passing yards this year against this defense. OAK is still getting killed on the ground, so stay tuned for some heavy Hunt chirp in the running backs section. There is also the chance that, as 15.5 point favorites, this game gets out of hand and Mahomes sits the 4th quarter, or they throw about 4 pass attempts in the 2H.
While Mahomes is sitting atop the league with 37 passing TDs in 2018, the next guy up isn't a bad play, either. You may have heard of him. He goes by the name Andrew Luck ($5,800). He's under $6K and is $1,800 cheaper than Mahomes. Luck's matchup looks bad only on paper, to the dull fantasy player. Luck's been as consistent, and at a high-level, as any QB in the NFL this year, riding high on an 8-game 3+TD streak, three of those going for four scores. Now, this is terrible analysis and in no way effects my DFS lineup with Luck, but he doesn't have any rushing TDs on the year. In any year he's been the Colts QB, he's scored multiple ground TDs, averaging 3.5/season, so eventually he's going to get one this year. The Jags are as good of a bet to let one up to Luck as any team in the NFL. They've allowed a QB rushing TD in two straight games, and in 4-of-7. Over their last six games, the Jags have allowed 22 FPs/game to QBs and 20+ in 5-of-6, a mark Luck has hit in eight straight games. What really intrigues me is that the Jaguars are the 4th toughest defense against fantasy WRs in 2018. They still very much have one of the league's strongest CB duos in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Ramsey missed practice on Wednesday, but returned on Thursday despite HC Doug Marrone advocating the injury could be serious. Guess it's not. But even while the JAX secondary allows the 29th most FPs to opposing WRs, they're 16th against the QB. Do the math, you can attack them with your tight end and your running back. What do the Colts have in those spots? Oh, just Eric Ebron who is tied for the NFL lead with 11 receiving TDs and leads all non-RBs with 12. Coming into 2018, Ebron had 11 career receiving TDs. In the backfield, the Colts might be without lead rusher Marlon Mack, who exited Week 12's game with a concussion, and as of Wednesday hasn't returned to practice. If Mack were to miss their Week 13 game, I'm all aboard the Luck train. The Jags are still one of the toughest teams to run against, and I think force-feeding Mack would only cause inefficiency to this Colts offense. With Mack out, Hines would take control (split with Wilkins) resulting in a much more pass-heavy offense. As you can see below, Luck's pass attempts with vs. without Marlon Mack in the lineup are absurd:
If Mack does play, it does, in fact, make me think twice about Luck.
I'm also okay running a different lineup headed by Kirk Cousins ($5,500 @ NE) because they should be trailing and need a heavy dose of 2H pass attempts. And because Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs. Case Keenum ($5,200 @ CIN) is another considerable starter, because of how historically bad this Cincinnati pass defense has been. They've allowed the single most FPs to the QB position in 2018, and Keenum hasn't actually been that bad recently, and against much tougher opponents. Lastly, Marcus Mariota ($5,200 vs. NYJ) is another low-priced slinger, coming off of a monster MNF performance against a stupidly underperforming Jets team.
If Mack is out in Week 13, all bets are off and it's all aboard the Luck train.
The only thing I'm sure of is this week is that Kareem Hunt is THE play at RB in DFS. There are two reasons why. First: In my most important season-long money league, I desperately need a huge game from Mahomes. Hunt will rush for 200+ yards and 3 scores. Second, because they won't need to throw. As 15.5 point favorites (The line would be 21.5 if KC was at home, is that a record?), Mahomes won't be asked to throw 35+ times. I think we're in store for Hunt's best game of the year on Sunday. Hunt is only the 4th highest priced RB ($7,800) on Sunday's slate and $1,500 cheaper than Gurley, Hunt will be in every one of my lineups.
Todd Gurley ($9,300) is coming off of his worst game of the year, thanks to an early-game ankle tweak, but don't look for lightning to strike twice if you happened to fade him in Week 13. C-Mac @ TB ($8,800) leaves me asking myself how can I fade any of these guys? But alas, you'll have too. And he would be it. For no reason in particular other than me seeing no other option but having both Hunt & Gurley in my lineups.
If you're rolling with Luck, Gurley & either Hunt/CMac - you're only left with ~$4,500/player to fill your roster. Considering Ebron is only $4,200 and there are like 9 solid options at D/ST, you can spend less there and grab one of these five guys:
- Phillip Lindsay @ CIN ($5,400)
- Chris Carson vs. SF ($5,200)
- Gus Edwards @ ATL ($4,800)
- Theo Riddick vs. LAR ($4,700
- Nyhiem Hines @ JAX ($4,100)
Phillip Lindsay is a top-10 play in season-long leagues, so I don't need to convince you why he's a great DFS option against, again, a historically bad CIN defense allowing the 2nd most FPs to RBs this year. The Bengals are allowing nearly 175 yards/game to opposing RBs over the last month and a half with multiple TDs in almost every game. Lindsay has completely taken over the Denver backfield over recent weeks despite Royce Freeman returning. Over Denver's last five games, Lindsay is averaging nearly 17 touches, 101.6 YFS and five scores. Freeman honestly isn't a bad play either.
I like Chris Carson, a lot. I think he's being criminally undervalued because he lacks the eye-popping box scores of other lead backs, but outside of Week 6's 27-3 blowout vs. OAK, in any game where Carson has been the clear lead back for SEA (which he is now), he's posted nearly identical numbers to Lindsay, with more touches. That sample size would be five games, Carson's averages: 23.2 touches, 104 YFS and four touchdowns. The Niners have been surprisingly stout against RBs this year, but the Hawks are big favorites at home, and Carson's workload should be around these numbers.
Gus Edwards will be a highly owned player against a Falcons defense donating points to opposing RBs, but admittedly, I'm going against the grain on Edwards this week with the fade. In full PPR, his lack of involvement in the passing game is nerve-racking.
With Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson out, and as 10 point underdogs to LAR, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Theo Riddick flirt with double-digit targets and receptions. Riddick was a bit disappointing last week, but I expect a bounce-back against a Rams team that has allowed an RB receiving TD in three straight games.
Nyheim Hines' analysis goes as far as Marlon Mack's availability.
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This is definitely not the week to pay up for WRs. Elite RBs are the play, and that's big facts only, I don't wanna hear no... but Tyreek Hill against OAK. Stoc. Unfortunately, I love Adam Thielen this week ($8,000 @ NE). I see no way he doesn't have a big game, although I'm super intrigued to see how the Pats defense plays this offense between Diggs and Thielen. Uncle Bill is the best at taking away the opposing team's best weapon. Unfortunate news for Kyle Rudolph. Buh dum chhh. Nah, they have Stephon Gilmore, one of the top CBs in the NFL, and they consistently use him to shadow opposing WR1s. On the outside, obviously, that would be Diggs. BUT, the Pats are not conventional, and they might see Thielen as the biggest threat. I doubt they move Gilmore into the slot to cover Thielen, but I'm excited to see this game. With Gilmore on the outside on Diggs and the Vikings going to need to score to win, Thielen is good for another 100+ yard game and a score.
Julio Jones is the only other WR I like at his price ($7,700 vs. BAL). This is strictly a contrarian play for GPP. Most people will be fading him based on his matchup, and paying up for RBs, but how many times is Julio the 7th most expensive WR (9th with TNF, SNF & MNF). It would surprise nobody if he went for 200 yards at home in the dome on turf. Idc who the opponent is.
As far as the remaining WRs go, you have to fill three slots. IMO, one of those HAS to be either Kenny Golladay ($6,700 vs. LAR) or Emmanuel Sanders ($6,300). In a perfect world, here's what would happen. Marlon Mack misses Week 13. Aqib Talib misses Week 13. Randall Cobb misses Week 13 and ESB plays. So you can get yourself a lineup like this:
Marlon Mack being out made Luck a better play, and enables you to flex Hines who was the cheapest out of those lower-tier RBs I named, enabling you to start BOTH Golladay and Sanders. Talib being out means a ridiculously good matchup for Golladay on the outside, as huge dogs who will need to throw the ball a lot. Since Week 10 (a game where Marvin Jones left in 3rd quarter), Kenny Golladay has a 30% team target share (6th highest - Willie Snead leads lol 42%), and NFL-high 60% team air yard share. If he plays against Peters, there's now way you can sit him. I also see no way to comfortably sit Sanders, but I would if Talib sits. The problem with starting both is that you have to fill that WR3 spot with a $3,300 player. I like Equanimous St. Brown (vs. ARZ). This is where the Randall Cobb part comes into play. If he's out, ESB becomes the WR3, and arguably the WR2 since MVS has virtually disappeared recently. ESB has been a nearly 80% snap guy over the L2 weeks and has out-targeted, out-caught and out-produced MVS in both. I know Peterson doesn't shadow anymore in Arizona's new defensive scheme, so you can't necessarily make the "Adams out of the equation" argument, but he does move around the field, playing both left and right side, so he won't lock down one WR. Arizona's FO's DVOA vs. WR1's is 11th in the NFL, whereas they rank 18th vs. WR2s and 21st vs all other WRs. Obviously, this is a stretch. But show me a $3,300 player that you're not stretching for like MJ in Space Jam and I'll show you a liar.
You could definitely sit Kenny G or Sanders and grab a guy like D.J. Moore ($5,600 @ TB), who I assume will be chalky as a mf, but it'll let you pay for a decent WR3. Moore has looked every bit the first round pick they drafted him as over the recent weeks, catching 15 passes on 17 targets for 255 total yards and a touchdown. The fact that Curtis Samuel & Devin Funchess were both backs at practice on Thursday, along with Torrey Smith back on the field, brings my love for Moore down this week, but he's still a super strong play. Corey Davis ($5,500 vs. NYJ) also intrigues me at that price, as we've finally seen a healthy Mariota, along with strong performances from Davis in 3-of-4 games.
A couple of names I like below $5,000 are:
- Josh Reynolds @ DET ($4,900)
- Josh Doctson @ PHI ($4,500)
- Adam Humphries vs. CAR ($4,200)
Eric Ebron ($4,200 @ JAX) is the play, the only play, and nothing but the play. He scored three touchdowns in Week 10 against this defense.