MonkeyKnifeFight - TD Dance Kamara, Mike Davis
Damien Harris - RB17
Seeing eight-man fronts on a league-high 43.5 percent of his carries. No other running back in the NFL is over 34.0 percent.
It's clear what this team wants to do and doesnt want to do. The former being run the ball, the latter being let Cam air out.
Their passing offense outside of the one game against the historically bad pass defense of the Seahawks, has been gross. They're running the ball on 53.8% of their plays, 2nd in the NFL.
Harris has averaged over 17 carries/game over his last three and since week 7, so a month size sample Harris ranks:
- 5th in carries
- 3rd in rushing yards (behind only Cook and Henry)
- t-1st in 100+ yard rush games
- 2nd in YPC (5.7)
- 5th in YAC/ATT
He's playing great on the ground, despite the first big fact I dropped on you and the stacked boxes.
Now he gets Houston who have a bottom 5 run defense grade, bottom 5 tackling grade, dead last per FootballOutsiders. They're allowing the 2nd most FPs to RBs on the year and more importantly for Harris, the most rushing yards total, 250 more rushing yards then the next closest team, that's insane.
Jarvis Landry - WR26 (ECR WR36)
- It's a good matchup, not being played in 37 mph wind
- The Eagles aren't necessarily a great matchup for opponents but the big games they've allowed this year have come to slot WRs:
- Sterling Shep (6-59-1)
- Tyler Boyd (10-125)
- Cooper Kupp (5-81)
D.J. Chark - WR33 (ECR WR26)
- Another tough matchup vs PIT who hasn't been good against the pass, but he sees Joe Haden (#7) in coverage rating per PP. Jake Luton under pressure is not something we want as fantasy owners of Chark. The Steelers blitz at the 3rd highest rate of any team (41.7%), Jake Luton in his two starts so far has completed 5-of-24 (20.8%) of his pressured dropbacks. I don't like the formula here. Maybe it means less of a down day for Chark and just a rough day for the Jaguars offense overall, but I'm not very confident in Chark right now.
- So I actually like Godwin the most this week. The Rams pass defense is very good. Ramsey is expected to stick on Mike Evans, and Ramsey shut down Metcalf last week.
- AB is ehh a little shaky, bc the CB opposite Ramsey, Darious Williams has been tremendous this year - 3rd best coverage grade behind Jaire Alexander and Bryce Callahan, while Godwin gets by far and away the easiest matchup in the slot against Troy Hill.
- AB was also the odd man out last week in the WR group: Godwin played on 72 snaps, Evans 64 and AB 39.