Cam Newton - QB31
give this man some slack shit.
yeah he was god awful in the passing game last year - but he had literally no one to throw the ball to.
they bring in hunter henry, jonnu smith, nelson agholor, kendrick bourne
their offensive line is ranked 3rd overall entering 2021 per PFF, they should have a good run game with damien harris.
it wasnt all bad with cam last year, there were some bright spots:
itll be his second year in the offense he's still gonna score a ton of rushing TDs. Cam isn't as bad as people are making him out to be right now. The man played in 15 games last year, had 23.6 or more FPs in 5 of them, so a 3rd of his games: including games of 25.7, 29.6 and 35.6 points. There is real upside here with Cam weekly.
Id be shocked if we see Mac Jones early on. Maybe I'm wrong here, but idc about Cam being a great thrower, he's going to be a good fantasy player.
Swift/Dobbins - 34-36
Both guys are starting to drift further and further into the sunken place of dead zone RBs.
Homies, dead zone RB land is for old dudes. Slow dudes. Dudes on shit teams running behind shit o line. 2 down thumpers that might get GL work. Think Uncle Lenny, Todd Gurley, Lev Bell, Mark Ingram, James Conner, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Devin Singletary.. seriously yall those were mid-round picks last year.
This zone is not for young, entering their prime, explosive backs with speed, pass catching ability behind good offensive lines with tons of upside.
I know this sounds different than what I've been saying, but these guys were going backend of the 2nd round like two months ago. And are now almost gettable in the 4th round, in superflex EASILY attainable in the 4th round.
Josh Jacobs - Las Vegas Raiders
Over the last month, Jacobs ADP has moved down over 10 spots on Underdog to pick 55, midway through the 5th round. In SF leagues, that's 6th round capital, if not flirting with 7th.
And I get it, Jacobs isn't catching passes. Not a lot at least. We did see his targets jump up from 27 to 45, year one to year two which is worth noting. They add Kenyan Drake which isn't ideal obviously but you're drafting Jacobs for rushing volume and TD upside.
It's not exactly fantastic news, given we don't expect LV to be a great team, but the weekly ceiling is there and it's predictable which is an edge in redraft.
But Jacobs should still have plenty of games where he runs the ball 18+ times. And he's going to absolutely dominate GL carries, as he always has.
Last year he led the NFL in RZ carries (64), 10z carries (35) and 4th in GL carries (18). His efficiency on GL carries was wack, converted 5 of 18 GL carries into TDs. Guy still finished with 12 TDs last year which is insane.
The Raiders were 8-8 last year. Vegas has them at 7.5 wins this year.
I simply dont think Jacobs' role is going to change THAT much in 2021. We know what Jacobs is, he's a really well-rounded running back.
The obvious change in this offense is the o-line. They let go of a lot of players. But tbh, they weren't good last year. Jacobs ranked 72nd among RBs in terms of run-blocking for him (PP). PFF had LV ranked 26th in RBing per PFF last year, and they have them ranked in the same slot heading into 2021.
Jarvis Landry - Cleveland Browns
He's like the WR46 right now. 9th/10th round pick.
terrible weather in 3 straight games, LV, HOU, PHI
jarvis was very much just jarvis in the other games:
baker literally averaged 12 pass completions/game in those 3 games.
It's not fun or fancy, but listen 10 half ppr ppg for the WR43 -- I think Baker is in for a big year, wildly efficient, could bring some nice pass TDs numbers with a bit of luck, jarvis should be in his normal 5-6 td range and be perfectly fine for you in the 10th-11th round.
Robert Tonyan - Green Bay (but also the entire GB offense)
I say this in just about every film I put out, but i am operating and drafting under the assumption that Rodgers is under center for the Packers come September.
If that's the case, Tonyan is an insane value right now.
He's exactly what you look for in a possible breakout TE in terms of a profile:
He's coming off a monster year as the TE3 in fantasy. Obviously, that's TD led, but you're going to have those opportunities when you're in an Aaron Rodgers offense. Yes I get it, his TD numbers are going to regress, but now he's the cemented starting TE, for years we've been trying to force something there Jace Sternburger, etc. but it's his full time role now and it's going to lead to a TON more volume.
Volume + efficiency + high scoring offense + accurate QB
+ little target competition - they again did very little to upgrade at WR only bringing in Amari Rodgers from Clemson.
This could be a VERY big year for Tonyan.
I mean listen, last year was Ebron's first in Pittsburgh and he was close to 100 targets. 8th among all TEs in targets last year, he's going undrafted right now and Pat Freier aint doing shit as a rookie.