Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP - QB4
Lamar Jackson is one year removed from breaking fantasy football and leading the NFL in passing touchdowns. One year removed from leading the NFL in passing touchdowns.
Do you guys remember who his pass-catchers were when he did that?
It was Mark Andrews and that was it.
Rookie Hollywood Brown with a screw in his foot, Nick Boyle, Willie Snead, Hayden Hurst. I'm not making this up.
We now have prime Mark Andrews. 3rd year Hollywood Brown. Rashod Bateman. Whatever tf Sammy Watkins and Tylan Wallace are right now.
The weapons are night and day.
Lamar is giving you a floor of 1000 rushing yards and he'll always give you a handful of week-winning games. 35+ fantasy points.
Would it shock anyone if Lamar was the QB1 in fantasy again in 2021? Not at all. I'd be way more surprised if he finished outside of like the top 6 fantasy QBs in 2021 than as he overlal RH
Jalen Hurts - Eagles
Current ADP: QB8
This to me feels exactly like Lamar Jackson in his sophomore year. We have a sample from the year prior, where he didn't look good throwing, but the rushing was there and it was so obvious the fantasy points to come in the following year.
People are thinking way too hard about this.
Fuck what you heard about them thinking about taking a QB in the draft. They literally let Carson Wentz GO. Rather than even letting the two compete, they said they'd rather let him go AND eat all that money to the cap - leaving the QB room completely to Hurts.
Last year, Hurts started 4 games. Scored 19.3, 37.8, 18.6 and then Doug Pederson started Nate Sudfeld in the 4th quarter in week 17, i know yall remember that - Hurts had 16.3 points at that time. He threw for more than 335 yards in 2-of-3 games, in those 4 games he ran the ball 46 times, x 4 = 184 rushes - would set a single-season high all-time by a QB. Like I should stop right there, we don't need to know much more.
I don't think people realize he has a very real chance to be the 3rd QB ever to rush for more than 1000 yards in a season... Well with 17 games he definitely should, but you know what I mean.
I'm not going to try and pretend his receiving group is drastically improved, but I think DeVonta Smith will be a true #1 for him, and that makes Reagor fall into the role he should have been playing all along, a WR2. The offensive line, however, will be better. It has to be. The entire line was hurt last year. Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, Lane Johnson, Jason Peters, Isaac Seumalo. Like it was actually crazy.
Y'all shit on me for Miles Sanders last year. But in an alternate, JUST universe, Miles Sanders was Barry Sanders in 2020.
Hurts is by far and away my most owned player in Underdog so far this year. He started the offseason going in the 8th/9th round, and has been moving up accordingly.
He could wind up being a bottom 10 passer in the league, which I don't think he will be, and I'd still be completely confident he finishes at or higher than his ADP.
It's an investment with almost no downside.
Daniel Jones - Giants
Current ADP: QB23
DJ will be might most highly-owned, attainable QB.
The case is simple for me - every QB is in the like QB12-QB25 range is about the same - what makes or breaks them for fantasy is their rushing ability and their supporting cast. I wish Waddle or DeVonta Smith fell to the Giants, and I'm definitely not about to say Kadarius Toney is a nice consolation prize, but getting Barkley byke and the signing of Golladay, an actual WR1 is going to be huge for Daniel Jones.
- Gets to play NFC East - PHI and DAL 4x -- ATL, CAR, KC, LV. Depending on when you're doing your fantasy playoffs this year it's DAL - PHI in Week 15-16. And you avoid their 2nd matchup with WAS its Week 18. It's a beautiful schedule.
He's not wrong about the deep balls. Well he's a little wrong, but he's close. He was #3 in deep ball completion rate (QBs w/ 30+ deep attempts), 3rd highest passing grade per PFF and #2 in BTT rate behind only Rodgers.
Ok, the elephants in the room. He's horrible outside of throws not downfield for some reason. The GIANT (no pun intended) elephant in the room. The guy sticks his hands in canola oil before he trots out for drives.
All he does is turn the ball over. Since 2019, DJ has 17 fumbles lost (most among QBs by 6!!!!). Add 22 interceptions on top of that and you have one very high blood pressure rating for Snacks and the rest of New York.
Is he going to make a Josh Allen jump.. doubtful. Josh Allen already made a jump from year one to year two, people just didn't want to believe it but he improved drastically on every statistic, then year 3 break out.
What I'm saying is, for QB23 price, Daniel Jones now has a really solid supporting cast and rushing ability. He will give you 25+ fantasy point weeks and having real weapons will make him a night and day passer in my opinion.
Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
Current ADP: QB18
I'll be honest, I thought he was going lower than this. He's ahead of Kirk, Baker, Fitz, Wentz, which I think is the correct tier, maybe even spicy, I just figured last year would have killed his ADP. On other sites he's in the QB20-22 range.
But the additions to offense are serioussss in Miami this year: Fuller, Waddle, Gesicki, Parker. They're doing everything they can to make sure Tua has what he needs to succeed.
The per throw/per game efficiency numbers weren't bad. He looked bad, and every throw seemed to be like 7 yards downfield, but they added Waddle and Fuller for that exact reason. Tua was a GREAT deep ball thrower in college.
I'm definitely willing to throw out last year. Really weird year, in and out with Fitz, the admitting he didn't know the playbook was fucking weird but whatever. It's his job now and it's hard to see him failing.
Trey Lance - San Francisco
Lance obviously has unreal upside. We're not drafting him expecting to start right now, but when he does get on the field, it's going to be lights out. In this offense, with these weapons, and his legs. Good night. He's exactly who you draft in 1QB leagues as your second QB, you shoot for upside and as your QB3 in superflex leagues.