Steven Mullen here doing a DFS article for you. Today I'll be looking at the players I must have in my player pool at each position. I'll be using Draft Kings pricing as it is the site I play on. I will be looking at the Main Slate ONLY 1pm and 4pm games no Thursday night, Sunday night or Monday night players. The biggest prize pool tournaments are Main Slate so I want all my focus there.
1. Lamar Jackson Bal 6000
Starting the season off in Miami is a dream. I expect Miami to be the worst team in the league this season. Normally in a blow out type game I would not be super interested in a QB. I am this time because of the rushing upside that comes with Lamar as well as the teams desire to get him off to a hot start passing the ball. I believe they will throw more then usual just to get Lamar feeling good. With 3 targets in Boykin, Hollywood, and Mark Andrews capable of long touch downs Lamar is my favorite QB play week 1.
2. Matt Stafford Det 5400
Stafford is in Arizona week 1. Arizona's top corner Pat Peterson is suspended for 6 weeks and their 2nd best corner Robert Alfrod fractured his fibula. Golladay and Marvin Jones should be able to go bananas against the depth corners of the Cardinals. If Arizona comes out at the high pace expected from the Air Raid there could be a ton of plays in this game. I believe the Cardinals defense will be so poor that even if Detroit slows the game down there will be tons of chances for big plays.
3. Kyler Murray Ari 5600
On the other side of that game is Kyler Murray. With his defense failing I think Kyler will be pressed into duty a lot. I do not expect Arizona to have much success running vs Snacks Harrison and the Lions line. I see a ton of scrambling and garbage time upside for Kyler. I also love that the public seems to be way off him after a weak preseason. I think 100 rushing yards and a TD is on the table in this game. Draft Kings scoring really rewards rushing QBs.
4. Pat Mahomes KC 7200
Mahomes will be at Jacksonville week 1 and while this may make you want to say no but it should make you say yes. The other 2 tier 1 QBs are not on the Main Slate Rodgers is Thursday night and Watson is Monday night. We get Mahomes at a reduced price compared to last season do to the match up. I also think the match up will keep his ownership % low. I completely understand the arguments against Mahomes week 1 but reduced price reduced ownership and no other tier 1 QBs on the slate this is a risk I want to take.
Bargain Bin- Jacoby Brissett Ind 4400
1. Chris Carson Sea 5700
Home vs Cincinnati and the Seahawks will be down many weapons.....is this real? This is a rare smash home run play. Short of injury I don't see a way Carson isn't a slate breaker week 1. Seattle has said they want to get him more passes and I believe them. If he can sprinkle in 5 catches I think he has 150-2 50-1 upside. We talking 200 total yards and 3 TD upside at 5700 whew! Even if Carson has a mediocre game he will not submarine your team at his price.
2. Tony Pollard Dal 4500
If Zeke signs get him out of your line ups, until then he's my 2nd favorite RB play on the week. Zeke savaged the Giants late last season. While Pollard isn't Zeke he will benefit from the Dallas oline handling the Giants dline. After the Giants dealt Snacks Harrison they were one of the worst run defenses in the league. They have addressed this with a 1st round pick run stopper Dexter Lawerence but I expect him to be overwhelmed in his 1st NFL game facing an elite oline. Pollard also will add catches and remember Draft Kings is full PPR. If Zeke signs by Wednesday I would slide him onto this list in place of Pollard as my #2 favorite RB play.
3. Nick Chubb Cle 6400
Home vs Titans week 1. I expect the Browns defense and Chubb to dominate. Much in the way Kamara was under priced at 7700 for his role to start last season with Ingram suspended Chubb is way under priced for his work horse role. I expect Cleveland to dominate time of possession and wipe the floor with Titans. Chubb is fantastic in the red zone, can break an 80 yard TD on any touch and will see increased passing work with Duke Johnson out of town. The match up isn't great the Titans run defense is actually good. However at this price point with his skill set and positive game script he is a must have for your week 1 player pool.
4. Dalvin Cook Min 6000
Week 1 at home vs Atlanta. Atlanta's defense has ranked 32nd in the league in fantasy points allowed to RBs on receptions for 2 straight seasons. Dalvin Cook is a fantastic pass catcher and has big time play making ability. I do expect the Falcons to improve a bit in that department with a healthier defense but until I see them do it I'm going to ride pass catching backs against them. I love the fact that this should be a hard fought high scoring game. I don't think the Vikings will be able to afford to give Cook many plays off week 1 if they want start the season with a win.
5. Kerryon Johnson Det 5800
At Arizona week 1. I will likely fade Kerryon in my Stafford line ups despite his pass catching ability only because I think Golladay and Marvin Jones are in better spots. In every other line up Kerryon will be a consideration. Arizona was 27th vs the run last season I think they could be worse this year. They looked pitiful on an 85 yard Dalvin Cook TD in preseason. I do expect CJ Anderson to get decent work in this game but don't be surprised if 6 minutes into the 1st quarter Kerryon's line is 5-100-1.
Bargain Bin- Matt Breida SF 4000, Miles Sanders Phi 3900, Devin Singletary Buf 3600
1. Kenny Golladay Det 6300
At Arizona week 1. As I have pointed out earlier no Pat Peterson, no Alford, accelerated game pace, money. I want a LOT of Golladay exposure. The 1st game of Kenny Golladays career came vs Arizona week 1 2017. Not many knew who he was then and he put up a line of 4-67-2(Stafford had 4 TDs). I think he bests that line this Sunday. You know what they say about history and repeating.
2. Tyler Lockett Sea 6000
Home vs Bengals. The Bengals were 29th vs WRs last season and Lockett is the only show in town. The Seahawks have been asking me to head there for week 1 to play some WR but I can't fit it into my schedule of getting fat and gambling on NFL games. With no one else in town and a major threat to score on any catch I love Lockett for week 1. I expect a lot of the Seahawks offense to be condensed between him and Carson.
3. Dede Westbrook Jax 4800
Home vs Chiefs. The Chiefs were 26th vs WRs in 2018. I expect the Jags to have to pass a LOT. Foles targeted Dede 7 times in a quarter and a half in a preseason game. Defilippo the Jags new OC loves to throw and loves throwing to the slot WR. I think this will be a 15 target game for Dede, and Dede has shown an ability to make big plays and score long TDs on occasion.
4. Adam Thielen Min 6800
Home vs Atlanta. Atlanta was 30th vs WR in 2018. Thielen has moved back to his rightful home in the slot. Late last season they swapped Diggs into the slot to get him going but it appears they learned from that mistake. Thielen feasted in the slot to start the year and was actually the WR 1 in fantasy for a time. Great match up back in slot price tag below the Elite WRs gimme gimme.
5. Odell Beckham Cle 8100
Home vs Titans. Odell is a man with a lot to prove. When he has his head right and is determined he is the best WR in the game. He likely will see coverage from Malcolm Butler who can have so big time stinker games. I think Odell will come out wanting to send a message to the league.
Bargain Bin- Michael Gallup Dal 4300, Curtis Samuel Car 4200, Marquise Goodwin SF 4000
1. Travis Kelce KC 7100
At Jaguars week 1. With the Tyreek and Watkins facing tough match ups I expect Kelce to be leaned on heavily. We are again getting a reduced price due to this Jaguars match up despite the fact they were below middle of the pack against TEs. I expect a lot of people to be on Hunter Henry because of his price point so Kelce should be a big time difference maker.
2. Hunter Henry LAC 3900
Home vs the Colts. Despite a strong defense last season the Colts really struggled with TE ranking 27th vs the position. The Chargers oline is very banged up week 1 so they might focus on more short passes and Henry could see and increased volume. Henry is priced WAY below any of the other elite TE's. Expect a heavy ownership % but don't shy away from him in this plus match up.
3. George Kittle SF 6600
At Tampa Bay week 1. Tampa really struggled against TE in 2018 ranking 25th vs them. Kittle is effectively the WR 1 on this team and should see the largest target share. Kittle is a threat to score on any play. I suspect Garoppalo to be a bit risk adverse week 1 after throwing a ton of interceptions in training camp. This could cause Kittle to be hyper targeted.
Bargain Bin- Mark Andrews Bal 3000
1. Baltimore Ravens 3800
At Miami, I generally do not target defenses on the road. I am making an exception here. Miami just traded away their best olineman to Houston. I expect the pass rush to wreck havoc on Fitzmagic and rush his throws. A ball hawking secondary vs a gambler QB can provide a monster week for this defense. I see multi TD upside which is rare for a defense.
2. Dallas 3500
Home vs the Giants. This defense looks absolutely fantastic. The Giants will be down Golden Tate 4 weeks due to suspension. Not many play makers to be afraid of outside of Saquon on the Giants side. Eli might feel extra pressure to make it happen with Daniel Jones breathing down his neck. I feel like that will give the Cowboys extra turn over opportunities.
Bargain Bin- New York Jets 3100
Good Luck week 1 get that Million!