Steven Mullen here with another Best Ball blog. I am going to feature 10 of my favorite deep sleepers in best ball. These guys all have an ADP of at least 192 as of 6/11 and should be available in round 17-18 of 12 man Best Ball drafts.
1. Malcom Brown(ADP 199) RB LAR
With mystery surrounding Todd Gurley's knee Darrell Henderson has shot up to round 6 of most best ball drafts. Let's not forget about the other player that would greatly benefit if Gurley's knee is as serious as the speculation. Brown could return incredible value at this ADP even if he is in a time share with Henderson. Brown is 20 pounds heavier and would likely take the goal line role. He also showed some big play ability check out his toe tap TD vs the Saints.
2. Ryquell Armstead(ADP 195) RB JAX
The back up to the man with tiny ankles, Leonard Fournette. This is a very big and very fast man 5'11 220 4.45 40. When Fournette gets injured(no not if) Armstead will likely take the job as the starter. I think if Fournette performs poorly Armstead could start to get carries even without injury. He was able to convince his coaches at Temple to give him snaps at defensive end with a tireless work ethic and enthusiasm for the game. He became one of only 3 players in college history to record 100 yards rushing and a sack in a game. In a starting role I believe he would pile up fantasy points.
3. David Moore(ADP 202) WR SEA
In 2018 Moore had a mini break out early with 4 TDs in 3 games. About a month later he had a game with 4 catches for 103 yards and a TD. At OTAs Seattle has been running Moore and Jaron Brown outside with Lockett in the slot. While Metcalf eventually will graduate to the 1st team Moore(24 yrs) should fend off the older Brown(29 yrs) in the other outside role. With the production he's put up in a small sample he's a guy I want to gamble on in these rounds.
4. Miles Boykin(ADP 216) WR BAL
At 6'4 220 with a 4.42 40 this man has the size and speed of a big time WR in the NFL. His main competition will be fellow draft pick Marquise Brown 5'9 170 (recovering from Lisfranc injury) and Willie Snead(yawn). The Ravens are going to have to pass more this season. Lamar Jackson will not survive running 15+ time a game and their defense is set to take a step back. Boykin should benefit from both these things. He should also be the Ravens most dominate WR in the redzone. If Brown struggles to recover from his injury Boykin should be uncontested as the Ravens #1 WR.
5. Darren Waller(ADP 204) TE OAK
An even bigger man At 6'6 256 4.46 40 and with Jared Cook out of town this former WR has a big opportunity. Waller was the greatest combine athlete the Ravens ever tested. Off field issues nearly closed the door for him but it is open again in 2019. With his size and Carr's tendency towards TE(OAK 6th in TE targets in 2018) Waller could be an absolute force especially in the redzone. Get him before the Hard Knocks hype spikes that ADP.
6. Jalen Hurd(ADP 216) WR SF
In 2015 while they were both at Tennessee, Hurd was able to keep Alvin Kamara off the field piling up 170 more touches then Kamara as a RB. He then decided to make the switch to WR and transferred to Baylor. In his 1st year as a WR in college he posted a line of 69-949-7. Those numbers are better then more heralded now team mate Deebo Samuels 1st 3 years and close to as good as Deebo's senior year line 62-882-11. With the biggest back on the 49ers roster being McKinnon at 209, its possible the 227 pound Hurd could get some looks at RB on the goal line. Hurd will not have a defined role in the 49ers offense right away. I have faith that Shanahan will find a way to use his talent and versatility to do damage.
7. Marcus Mariota(ADP 201) QB TEN
Ok this one is more value then sleeper, but I wanted to include 1 QB. Mariota is the QB i have interest in that can be found in these rounds(Foles is my 2nd choice ADP 199). Eli and Flacco just don't have any upside to produce stud weeks(Top 2 QB). I also have zero interest in the Miami or Washington QB's. I tend to go mostly 2 QB and if I am getting a 3rd I don't to play who is the starter. Mariota has a couple stud weeks(Top 2 QB) on his resume and a greatly improved receiving corps. With AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker this will be the most talented group of pass catchers he has ever had. Mariota has bulked up and is in a contract year so should be highly motivated.
8. Albert Wilson(ADP 200) WR MIA
Wilson is a big play waiting to happen. He had shown big play ability in his time with Kansas City before coming to Miami. Last year he put on an amazing display torching the best defense in the league Chicago for 155 yards and 2 TDs. Miami's QB battle should not effect him as he can take short(Rosen) or long(Fitzmagic) passes to the house. He is expected back before week 1 from a hip injury last season that has him at a discounted ADP. His ability to score 13+ fantasy points on any touch make this guy a risk well worth taking in the final rounds.
9. Will Dissly(ADP 216) TE SEA
We only got a glimpse in 2018. Pete Carroll tried to tell us(we don't trust him), Russel Wilson tried to tell us last off season. This off season former Seahawk and now Seahawk broadcaster Dave Wyman was notably quoted saying he thought Dissly could be the greatest TE in team history. Dissly only really played 3 games in 2018 and provided a stat line of 8-156-2. Dissly had 2 great fantasy games and 1 dud. Then he tore his patellar tendon early in week 4. This injury has his ADP pushed way down and is a real concern. However if you are looking for a TE late in a 12 man Best Ball only Waller offers an upside like Dissly.
10. John Ross(ADP 210) WR CIN
With 7 tds on just 21 catches you have to ask why Ross didn't catch more passes? Well one answer is a pitiful 36.2 catch rate in 2018. A poor offense sub par QB play and his own struggles combined for a very bad season for Ross. New head coach Zac Taylor will bring the Rams system with him into Cincy. If they can find a way to get the ball in this play makers hands he could have a serious break out season. The Rams system did wonders for Goff maybe it can help resurrect Andy Dalton. Ross is another great risk to take in the final rounds.
BONUS! AJ Brown(ADP 207) WR TEN
I saved one of my favorites for the bonus round! AJ Brown was a dominate college WR with a combined 2572 rec yards and 17 TD's his last 2 season's at Ole Miss. With Adam Humphries set to take over the slot role Brown will have a starting spot outside. His competition to be the #1 WR, disappointing Corey Davis. Corey Davis line last season 65-891-4(meh). Take away his monster performance in an OT game vs Philly and his line looks like 56-730-3(vomit). Parts of it were the offense and QB play, but parts of it were also his own play. I think Brown has the tools to over take Davis and become a #1 WR on his team. You can grab him in round 18!
Next week we will be taking a deep dive into line up stacking. A look back at how stacking effected 2018 best ball. How, when and why to stack players, as well as the best stacking options.