Julio Jones - Atlanta Falcons
Current ADP: 4.05 (41 - WR16) **REMINDER 1QB ADP - so easily a 5th round pick in SF
The Julio slander needs to stop. It needs to.
I'm going to proceed as if he's going to be a member of the Falcons next year, because I don't want to live in a world where that's not true. I simply won't allow it.
This feels 1000% like Adam Thielen last year.
I tell you to stay away from older players coming off of injuries. But I need to be more specific. Real injuries: Broken foot, torn acl, achilles, ankle, etc.
Not a fucking hamstring pull. In 2019, Thielen was a top-5 fantasy WR before pulling the hamstring and it fucked the rest of his season, people acted like he was old and injury prone after that. Easy value in 2020.
Same thing is happening with Julio Jones.
When you actually look at the timeline of Julio Jones from 2020, it's wonky but super encouraging from a number's stand point.
Week 1: 12-9-157
An uncharacteristic drop from Julio puts him a play away from another huge game.
Dirk Koetter comes out and says the hamstring injury is much worth than letting on, and that's confirmed considering he not only missed the next game because of it in Week 3, then Week 4, he retweeks it and plays on just 21% of their snaps, and then misses Week 5.
He returns in Week 6 and what does he do?
- Week 6: 10-8-137-2
- Week 7: 9-8-97
- Week 8: 10-7-137
- Week 9: 7-5-54-1
Bye in Week 10, Week 11 the hamstring resurfaces, he plays on just 36% of the snaps before leaving the game. Misses the rest of Week 11 and Week 12 for it, returns in Week 13 vs the Saints, posts a light 10-6-94 and then misses the remaining 4 games with the hamstring. A hamstring-plagued season, obviously, and obviously that hamstring will be plenty rested for 2021.
So, if you're fading Julio, it's not because he lost a step, just know that, it's because you think he's washed and the injuries are going to be a problem - it's a hamstring pull. Didn't need surgery, it's not torn, like what are yall doing.
If you look at the games in which Julio played in more than 40% of snaps, aka, didn't get injured he's the fantasy WR3 and his pace in those 7 games would be 142-103-1600-7
People. 103 catches, 1600 yards, 7 touchdowns. Fucking knock it off with the 4th round Julio shit. Imagine drafting 2-3 workhorse backs and getting Julio?
I'm excited for Arthur Smith to come to Atlanta and implement a play-action heavy offense. It might be a bit more balanced but he knows how to use his best weapons and they simply don't have the pieces to make this offense a run-heavy one. Not even close.
Diontae Johnson - Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: 5.12 (60 - WR25)
I get it. There's a LOT of things not to like about the situation.
- Big Ben stinks
- They resigned JuJu
This man had 144 targets last year, in 15 games. 144 in 15 games.
He finished with 88 catches, 923 yards and 7 touchdowns.
144 targets in 15 games.
That does not factor in the concussion he suffered early in Week 3, causing him to miss that game,
and in Week 5 with a back injury. He played 24 and 8% of the team's snaps in those games. The back forced him to miss week 6 as well. He also dealt with a toe injury all season that lingered and forced him to miss a bunch of practice.
That also doesn't factor in 16-11-117 game in the first round of the playoffs.
If you take out those two games where left really early bc of injury, his 16-game pace is: 167-107-1140-8.6
that's not even factoring in the huge playoff game he had.
I get it, everyone and their mother is going to harp on his yards per target number. You get 140 targets, you should crack 1000 yards, no question about it. And the drops did not help. He got benched for the drops.
In his rookie season he had a 3.3% drop rate - not even top-75 in the NFL. I'm willing to chalk that up as something that won't play as big of a role in 2021.
But there wasn't a ton he could do with this, either:
I don't see this offense shifting much from last year. They'll be more run-heavy with Najee, but it should be again a quick-hitting passing offense where Johnson soaks up targets.
At the end of the day, I just think Johnson is an awesome player. He was great in his rookie year, great again last year, while less efficient still a great 2nd year in the league. He continually measures as one of the best route-runners and seperators in the league per Matt Harmon's reception perception. This just feels like a "don't think too hard about this one" kind of thing.
I like both Johnson and Claypool, I have about 0 desire to draft JuJu anywhere even at his price of 7.05.
Courtland Sutton - Denver Broncos
Current ADP: 6.05 (65 - WR28)
Courtland Sutton seems like the most obvious candidate to take himself from mid-round WR to WR1. He's built like an alpha, plays like an alpha, but is coming off of a torn ACL obviously, which accounts for his mid 6th round ADP.
Drew Lock also accounts for it. Drew Lock and/or Teddy Bridgewater.
This is a total talent play. If you want to fade in redraft, wait until he's 2 years removed from the ACL tear, they have a QB in Denver, tbh I'd understand it. But Sutton's ceiling is incredible for someone you can as your WR2 or 3.
Remember how good he as in 2019: 125 targets, 72 catches, 1112 yards and 6 touchdowns. And I know, people are gonna be like but did u see what Sutton did when it was Drew Lock. Yeah did u see what your mother did in 1972 bitch.
We gonna act like JOE FLACCO AND BRANDON ALLEN MADE COURTLAND SUTTON. Drew Lock might be bad, but he's not worse than 2019 Joe Flacco or Brandon Allen. Sutton will be good because he's good, end of story.
And you hear it often, the Broncos have so many weapons. Like sure, but realistically it's Sutton and Jeudy, and we know who the alpha is. KJ Hamler is fun and explosive and makes for cool practice twitter clips, but he caught 30 passes last year without Sutton on the field. Noah Fant, also a good player but like he's not going to average more than 5-6 targets/game when Sutton is on the field. He averaged 4 as a rookie, and 6 last year without Sutton.
Idk who the QB is going to be. If it's Bridgewater, as much shit as we give him, he supplied us with 3 top-25 fantasy WRs last year, one of whom (Spaghetti) had 140 targets. DJ Moore with 120.
I have no question that Sutton is going to demand big targets and post big numbers with them.